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巴菲特表示失败者才会看衰美国

Reuters 2017年09月26日

不管世界局势如何,巴菲特对美国的乐观态度一如既往。

美国要如何应对全球日益骚动的局势?对这一问题不确定性并未影响沃伦·巴菲特对美国长期——甚至未来100年前景的乐观态度。

这位伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的董事长在上周四晚表示:“每当我听到人们看衰这个国家时,都觉得他们疯了。”

在纽约当晚庆祝《福布斯》杂志100周年华诞的活动上,巴菲特发表了讲话。他也成为了杂志纪念全球百位最伟大在世“商业思想家”特刊的封面人物。

1965年起,在这位亿万富翁的带领下,伯克希尔从一家失败的纺织公司变成了一家旗下拥有超过90家企业的大型集团,其业务范围涉及保险、铁路、能源和零售等,市值超过千万美元。

巴菲特称,他认为道琼斯工业平均指数会在未来100年内“超过100万点”,而上周二收盘时,指数只有22,370.80。他表示,考虑到一个世纪以前指数仅有大约81点,这并非不切实际。

不过他知道自己等不到那一天了。

他说:“当我听到关于活到100岁的讨论时,感到很兴奋。我87岁了。”

巴菲特表示,他最近发现,美国100岁以上老人共有53,364人,其中女性和男性的比例接近5:1。

他说:“我们应该考虑调整性别比例”,引发了满堂大笑。

尽管如此,他表示长期投资仍然还有很长的路要走。

巴菲特指出,《福布斯》1982年首次公布美国富人400强的榜单(当时巴菲特的身家只有2.5亿美元)以来,上榜者大约有1,500人。

他们有一个共同点。

他说:“你在其中看不到买空型投资者。”他指的是那些认为股价会下跌的人。

巴菲特表示:“托马斯·杰弗森写下《独立宣言》(Declaration of Independence)241年来,看空美国一直都是失败者的游戏。我可以预测,未来也依然如此。”

《福布斯》的百大商业思想家榜单中有各种背景的人士。

上榜者包括微软的共同创始人比尔·盖茨,亚马逊的创始人杰夫·贝佐斯,Facebook的马克·扎克伯格和雪莉·桑德伯格,诺贝尔和平奖的获得者穆罕默德·尤纳斯,建筑师弗兰克·盖里,媒体名人奥普拉·温弗瑞和歌手博诺和保罗·麦卡特尼。(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正

Uncertainty about how the United States will cope with growing tumult in the world has not dampened Warren Buffett's optimism for the country's prospects over the long term — even 100 years into the future.

"Whenever I hear people talk pessimistically about this country, I think they're out of their mind," Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc (brk.a, -0.34%), said on Tuesday night.

Buffett spoke in New York at an event celebrating the 100th anniversary of Forbes magazine, and is on the cover of an issue featuring 100 of the world's greatest living "business minds."

The billionaire has transformed Berkshire since 1965 from a failing textile company into a conglomerate with more than 90 businesses in such sectors as insurance, railroads, energy and retail, and well over $100 billion of stocks.

Buffett said he expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to be "over 1 million" in 100 years, up from Tuesday's close of 22,370.80. He said that's not unreasonable, given how the index was roughly 81 a century ago.

But he knows he won't be around to see it happen.

"When I hear talking about making it to 100, I get excited," he said. "I'm 87."

Buffett said he recently determined that of the 53,364 people in the United States who were at least 100 years old, the ratio of women to men was nearly 5-to-1.

"We should start thinking about a sex change," Buffett said, prompting laughter.

Nonetheless, he said long-term investing remains the way to go.

He noted that since Forbes created its first list of the 400 richest Americans in 1982 -- Buffett was worth just $250 million then -- some 1,500 different people have been included.

All with one thing in common.

"You don't see any short sellers," he said, referring to people who bet stock prices will fall.

"It has been 241 years since Thomas Jefferson wrote the Declaration of Independence," he said. "Being short America has been a loser's game. I predict to you it will continue to be a loser's game."

Forbes' list of top business minds included people with a variety of backgrounds.

Among them were Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos, Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg, Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, architect Frank Gehry, media mogul Oprah Winfrey, and singers Bono and Paul McCartney.

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