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比特币价格重回4,000美元

Jeff John Roberts 2017年09月21日

在因为诸多利空消息遭受重挫后,比特币价格出现大幅反弹。

中国带来的市场恐慌到此为止。周一,比特币似乎正在消除投资者对中国政府打压加密货币的不安,实现了大幅反弹。

截至美国东部时间上午十点左右的24小时内,比特币价格大幅上涨超过10%,在近一周内首次突破了4,000美元大关。

这是一次华丽的命运逆转,因为过去一周对于数字货币而言是糟糕的一周。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)CEO抨击比特币是“欺诈”,另外中国政府命令加密货币交易中心停止交易。

这些坏消息导致比特币价格大幅下跌到接近3,000美元,比九月初下跌了近40%。比特币在9月份时一度突破了5,000美元。

下面是根据Winkelvoss指数的数据得出的比特币波动情况。该指数主要统计多家比特币交易中心的平均价格。

So much for those China chills. On Monday, bitcoin appeared to be shaking off investors' anxiety about a cryptocurrency crackdown by the Chinese government, and posting big gains.

As of mid-morning Eastern Time, the price of bitcoin had soared over 10 percent in the last 24 hours and crossed above the $4,000 mark for the first time in nearly a week.

This is a big reversal of fortune after a terrible week for the digital currency in which the CEO of J.P. Morgan (jpm, +1.22%) slammed bitcoin as "a fraud" and the Chinese government ordered cryptocurrency exchanges to cease trading.

The spate of bad news led the price of bitcoin to nosedive to near the $3,000 mark—a nearly 40% drop from early September when it briefly crossed into $5,000 territory.

Here's what the recent ride has looked like, according to data from the Winkelvoss index, which averages the price of several bitcoin exchanges:

图片来源:Winkdex

现在很难确切地解释比特币最新一轮反弹的原因,不过最大的可能是对加密货币弹性的基本信心。中国对比特币的打压,一度被视为对比特币生死存亡的威胁,但现在交易商似乎押注比特币能够幸存下来,因为其之前曾经遭遇过许多危险:

民族国家对比特币的打压越严重,有经验的投资商就会买进更多比特币。

- Jameson Lopp (@lopp),2017年9月18日

也有人提到了最近的一项分析。这项分析支持了一种通俗的说法,即比特币本身已经成为一类永久性资产,可以与贵重金属相媲美,甚至可以成为央行的一种储备货币:

焦点:关于比特币,上周的事情告诉我们什么https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-18/what-last-week-tells-us-about-bitcoin

- Jerry Brito (@jerrybrito) ,2017年9月18日

这种乐观情绪可能是有根据的。尽管如此,比特币从上周的打击中恢复过来仍有很长的距离 — 尽管价格有所反弹,但比特币仍比其最近的高点低了20%左右。(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙/汪皓

It's hard to say for sure what explains bitcoin's latest resurgence but the best guess may be an underlying confidence in the crypto currency's resiliency. While a crackdown by China might have once seemed to be an existential threat, it appears traders are for now betting that bitcoin will survive this as it has so many previous perils:

The harder nation states crack down, the more coins smart money will buy.

- Jameson Lopp (@lopp) September 18, 2017

Others pointed to a recent analysis that supports a popular narrative that bitcoin has become a permanent asset class in its own right, one that will jockey with precious metals and may even become a reserve currency for central banks:

Spot on: What Last Week Tells Us About Bitcoin https://t.co/TPoka1x98r pic.twitter.com/XADY7uAVXp

- Jerry Brito (@jerrybrito) September 18, 2017

This optimism may be well-founded. Nonetheless, bitcoin still has a ways to recover from last week's smackdown—despite the recent rally, the currency is still around 20% below its recent highs. (P.S. If you're bearish on the whole thing: here's our handy guide to shorting bitcoin).

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