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欧亚集团:2018年是“巨大突发危机”酝酿成熟之时

BLOOMBERG 2018年01月09日

这家位于纽约的政治风险咨询公司认为,全球的政治挑战“令人生畏”。

欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)在年度展望中警告称,今年可能会出现地缘政治危机,其规模堪比十年前的金融危机。

这家位于纽约的政治风险咨询公司认为全球的政治挑战“令人生畏”,表示“如果我们不得不选择巨大突发危机——那种堪比2008年金融危机的地缘政治危机——会发生的一年,那可能就是2018年。

欧亚集团的总裁伊恩·布雷默在彭博电视台(Bloomberg Television)的访谈中对汤姆·基恩和弗朗辛·拉奎表示:“由于政府的干涉日益增加,全球市场变得更加分裂。部分原因在于中国人成为了一个可选的投资模式,他们越来越被看作全球其他经济体最重要的驱动者。”

以下是欧亚集团2018年最为担忧的一些问题:

错估

一旦出现过失或错误判断,就可能激起严重国际冲突的领域实在太多。网络攻击、朝鲜、叙利亚、俄罗斯和恐怖主义等,都是可能犯错并导致对抗的危险问题。

欧亚集团表示:“我们并非处在第三次世界大战的边缘,但现在没有谁可以保证全球的安全。随着有能力采取破坏行动的次国家和非国家行为体增多,这个世界如今更加危险。”

技术冷战

技术的迅猛发展会重塑经济和政治秩序,而这一过程将混乱不堪。对市场支配地位的争夺,市场分裂和新技术研发竞赛等都会导致分歧。

欧亚集团表示:“随着我们的汽车、房屋、工厂和公共基础设施开始产生堆积如山的数据,随着互联互通演化为增强现实,新一代人类将会不知疲倦地努力工作,这对社会和地缘政治具有重要的意义。不过在那以前,为了扩大经济实力,全球会展开最为激烈的竞争。”

伊朗

美国与伊朗在2018年的关系将是广泛的地缘政治和市场风险的一大源头。如果伊朗核协议在今年被撕毁,中东地区将陷入真正的危机。

欧亚集团表示:“特朗普讨厌伊朗。无论正确与否,他把伊朗看作世界上许多邪恶问题的根源。”

保护主义

在民粹主义、国家资本主义和地缘政治加剧紧张的情况下,保护主义将更加大行其道。政府也在介入数字经济和创新密集型行业,保护知识产权和相关技术。

欧亚集团表示:“发达国家市场反政府运动的兴起已经迫使(在某些情况下是允许)决策者采取更加重商主义的手段去应对全球经济竞争,并表现得像是在采取措施夺回流失的工作岗位。墙壁正在建立起来。”(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正

This year could see a geopolitical crisis on the scale of the financial crash a decade ago, Eurasia Group warned in its annual outlook.

Describing global political challenges as “daunting,” the New York-based political risk consultancy said that “if we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis — the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown — it feels like 2018.” The biggest uncertainty surrounds China’s move to fill a vacuum as U.S. influence continues to decline, stoking tensions between the two powers, it said. That’s likely to affect economics as well.

“We see a much greater fragmentation of the global marketplace because governments are becoming more interventionist,” Eurasia President Ian Bremmer said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua. “Part of that is because the Chinese have an alternative model for their investments and they’re increasingly going to be seen as the most important driver of other economies around the world who will align themselves more with Beijing than with Washington.”

Here are some of Eurasia’s biggest worries in 2018:

Miscalculations

There are too many places where a misstep or misjudgment could provoke serious international conflict. Cyberattacks, North Korea, Syria, Russia and terrorism are some of the risks that could trigger a mistake that leads to confrontation.

“We aren’t on the brink of World War III,” Eurasia said. “But absent a global security underwriter, and with a proliferation of subnational and non-state actors capable of destabilizing action, the world is a more dangerous place.”

Technology Cold War

As rapid technological developments reshape the economic and political order, the process will be messy. Fault lines include a struggle for market dominance, fragmentation and a race for new technologies.

“As our cars, homes, factories, and public infrastructure begin to generate mountains of data, and as connectivity morphs into augmented reality, a new generation of humans will be ‘on the grid’ around the clock, with important implications for society and geopolitics,” Eurasia said. “But until we get there, it’s the world’s biggest fight over economic power.”

Iran

Relations between the U.S. and Iran in 2018 will be a source of broad geopolitical and market risk. If the nuclear deal doesn’t survive the year, the Middle East could be pushed into a real crisis.

“Trump has it in for Iran,” Eurasia said. “Rightly or wrongly, he sees the country as the root of much evil in the world.”

Protectionism

Protectionism will make further inroads led by populism, state capitalism and heightened geopolitical tensions. Governments are also intervening in the digital economy and innovation-intensive industries to preserve intellectual property and related technologies.

“The rise of anti-establishment movements in developed markets has forced (in some cases, enabled) policy makers to shift toward a more mercantilist approach to global economic competition and to look as if they’re doing something about lost jobs,” Eurasia said. “Walls are going up.”

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