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商业 - 科技

机器人会在未来13年里带走8亿个工作岗位

David Meyer 2017年12月04日

办公室主任和施工设备操作员的工作可能会被技术取代,为了与机器人与自动化系统竞争,他们的收入也将缩水。

麦肯锡全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute)的一项新研究预计,现今的4亿到8亿个工作岗位到2030年将实现自动化作业。

这项研究为人们日益关注的未来就业情况提供了最新的观点。研究所的合伙人迈克尔·崔对彭博社(Bloomberg)表示:“随着时间的推移,我们必须改变自己,掌握新的技能。”

在美国,中产阶级似乎最为害怕,办公室主任和施工设备操作员的工作可能会被技术取代,为了与机器人与自动化系统竞争,他们的收入也将缩水。

在劳动力更便宜,技术相对昂贵的地区,人类工作被取代的可能性要比成熟市场更低。

麦肯锡的研究部门表示,当然,也会出现新的工作。正如比尔·盖茨和欧特克(Autodesk)首席执行官安德鲁·纳格诺斯特近日所言,人口老龄化可能会带来更多医护岗位(除非这些工作也由机器人代劳,日本就是这样)和机器人相关的岗位。

Wired报道称,报告的共同作者苏珊·伦德表示:“大部分情况下,都有足够的工作让我们大家去做。”(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正

A new study by the McKinsey Global Institute estimates that between 400 million and 800 million of today’s jobs will be automated by 2030.

The research adds fresh perspective to what is becoming an increasingly concerning picture of the future employment landscape. “We’re all going to have to change and learn how to do new things over time,” institute partner Michael Chui told Bloomberg.

In the U.S., it seems it’s the middle class that has the most to fear, with office administrators and construction equipment operators among those who may lose their jobs to technology or see their wages depressed to keep them competitive with robots and automated systems.

In places where labor is cheaper and tech is more expensive, jobs may be less vulnerable than in more developed markets.

There will—of course—be new kinds of jobs, too, McKinsey’s research arm said. As recently articulated by business leaders like Bill Gates and Autodesk chief Andrew Anagnost, an aging population may lead to more work for caregivers (unless they too are replaced by robots, as is happening in Japan) and for people who tend to the robots.

“There will be enough jobs for all of us in most scenarios,” report co-author Susan Lund said, according to Wired.

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