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经济学家预测,2018年全球经济增速“为近年最佳”

Keshia Hannam 2017年12月04日

如果明年全球的经济增长率达到4%,将会是2011年以来的最高值。

高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)和巴克莱银行(Barclays Plc)预测,全球经济增长率将在明年达到4%,G7经济体的表现预计将自2010年以来第一次超出预期。一位经济学家认为,这种乐观的预测“为近年最佳”。

彭博社(Bloomberg)报道称,如果明年全球的经济增长率达到4%,将会是2011年以来的最高值,也比高盛对今年的预估值3.7%更高。在高盛11月的经济前景报告中,经济学家扬·哈祖斯表示,多数大型经济体的表现比金融危机之前的平均水平更高。高盛的报告显示,明年预期的GDP增长“将显著高于舆论预期,并受到宽松的经济环境和财政政策支撑。”

在另一份11月的报告中,巴克莱银行的经济学家阿贾伊·拉贾德哈尔克萨和迈克尔·加文写道:“持续的经济扩张势头良好。”

他们表示:“这种经济扩张没有过度依靠某个单一地区、行业或需求来源。它似乎也没有引发会带来直接威胁的经济或金融过度。”

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)2018年的全球宏观展望报告要保守一些,预测来年是全球经济恢复的一年,理由是稳定的“调节性货币政策和更多的财政刺激”。

摩根士丹利的报告预测,成熟市场的稳步增长在新兴市场的对比下将略显失色,后者的通货膨胀率将与亚洲为首的新兴经济体相匹配。摩根士丹利表示,2018年的货币政策将保持扩张性,这是包括美国在内的一些关键的成熟市场经济体的财政政策。风险方面,包括通货膨胀加速带来的缺口,资产估值过高导致的财政紧缩,以及破坏全球贸易的行为可能导致的贸易保护主义。

尽管经济会出现增长,但几乎没有经济学家认为会出现通胀激增的情况,大部分人预测通胀速度会处于中央银行家乐意看见的范围内。(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正

Outlooks for next year from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.and Barclays Plcpredict global growth will reach 4%, with G7 economies expected to beat projections for the first time since 2010. One economist deemed that optimistic forecast “as good as it gets.”

A global growth rate of 4% next year would be the strongest since 2011, and an increase from the 3.7% Goldman Sachs estimated for this year, reports . Most major economies are even running ahead of pre-financial crisis averages, said economist Jan Hatzius in Goldman’s November Economic Outlook report. The Goldman report says the projected GDP growth for next year is “notably above consensus expectations and supported by still-easy financial conditions and fiscal policy.”

In a separate November report, Barclays economists Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Michael Gavin wrote that “the ongoing economic expansion has substantial momentum.’’

“It is not overly reliant on any single geographical region, industry, or source of demand,” they said. “It does not seem to have generated economic or financial excesses that pose an immediate threat.’’

Taking a more moderate view, Morgan Stanley’s 2018 Global Macro Outlook report predicts the year ahead will be one of global recovery, supported by unmoving “accommodative monetary policy and more fiscal stimulus.”

Morgan Stanley’s report forecasts steady growth in developed markets that will be eclipsed by emerging markets; inflation rates in the latter markets will match those in emerging economies, led by Asia. Monetary policy is set to remain expansionary in 2018, Morgan Stanley says, as is fiscal policy in several key developed market economies, including the U.S. Risks related to estimating the shortfall of faster inflation, tightening finances owing to rich asset valuations, and a disruption in global trade which could lead to protectionism.

Despite growth, few economists anticipate any surges in inflation, with most forecasting a gradual acceleration that central bankers should welcome.

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