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《财富》2018年全球大预言

《财富》杂志编辑 2017年12月03日

请看《财富》第5期“年度水晶球”——我们对2018年商业世界的预测。

优秀的企业紧跟潮流,卓越的企业预测潮流。为了帮您认清未来,我们发掘了来自无数信源的预测和预估,并征询了《财富》杂志内部专家的意见,奉上我们对未来一年的展望。我们觉得,在这些预言当中,最有可能实现的是印度经济增长、汽车将会飞行、比特币将崩盘——然后会反弹,直至创新高。亿万富豪的财富将继续暴涨,您将吃到人造肉,并且喜欢上它的味道。现在,就来看看《财富》第5期“年度水晶球”——我们对2018年商业世界的预测。

目录

1.特朗普的胜利与欧盟的危机

2.把你对市场的看法告诉我们,我们告诉你哪家投行是你的知音

3.飞机、火车和飞行汽车

4.最高法院将如何裁决

5.关注谁,支持谁,吃什么

6.科技行业在2018年的风险和希望

7.需要了解的词汇

8.谁会有个好年景

9.我们在2017年的表现如何

Good businesses keep up with the hottest trends. Great ones anticipate them. To help you discern what’s coming next, we’ve mined the forecasts, predictions, and projections from countless sources and polled Fortune’s in-house experts to bring you this look at the coming year. Our best bets? India will grow, cars will fly, and Bitcoin will crash—before it rebounds to new highs. Billionaires will blast off into space, and you’ll be eating meat with no animal in it (and you might even like it). Herewith, our predictions for the world of business in 2018, in our fifth annual edition of Fortune’s Crystal Ball.

Table of Contents

1. Trump’s Triumph, and the EU’s Crisis

2. Tell Us How You Feel About the Market, and We’ll Tell You Which Big Bank Is Your Soul Mate

3. Planes, Trains, and Cars That Fly

4. How the Supreme Court Will Rule

5. Who to Watch, Who to Root for, What to Eat

6. Tech’s Peril and Promise in 2018

7. Terms to Know

8. Who’s Going to Have a Good Year

9. How We Did in 2017

1.特朗普的胜利和欧盟的危机

在未来的一年,印度的经济将继续攀升,英国微妙的脱欧谈判很可能发生意外,在美国的中期选举过后,两党力量回归均衡。

1. Trump’s Triumph, and the EU’s Crisis

In the year ahead, India’s economy will climb, Britain’s delicate Brexit negotiations are likely to derail, and the U.S. will see a pivotal election.

民主党赢得普选,但仍然不能夺回国会

民主党将在2018年中期选举中赢得多数票,但《财富》杂志预测,它的票数不足以让它拿下众议院。城市群落化和选区划分对共和党极为有利,即便总统的支持率低于40%,仍不足以让南茜·佩洛希(Nancy Pelosi)重新坐上众议院议长的宝座。至于夺回参议院,可能性更小。

脱欧乱局致使特蕾莎·梅下台

愈演愈烈的性骚扰丑闻和在脱欧问题上的分歧将汇聚成为一股足以让特蕾莎·梅政府垮台的力量。工党的杰里米·科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)将成为英国首相,他将努力完成与欧盟的脱欧谈判(并希望在“新自由主义”欧盟的单一市场之外,建设一个社会主义天堂)。外汇和债券市场将遭受严重打压。

波多黎各令新能源复兴

飓风玛利亚给波多黎各造成的破坏为开创新事业提供了广阔舞台。尽管重建该岛电网的首次竞标失败,波多黎各总督里卡尔多·罗塞约(Ricardo Rosselló)表示,旧的发电系统一定会被由太阳能和风能供电的本地化微电网所取代。类似的想法还包括建设小型模块化核反应堆。到明年这个时候,波多黎各将开启一场全球性的可再生能源(或核能)革命,吸引来大量投资。

欧盟反垄断官司继续发酵

欧盟将再次重罚谷歌(Google),理由是滥用其安卓系统的主导地位。欧盟还将拒绝谷歌对操纵购物搜索结果一案提出的解决办法。微软的必应(Bing)有可能趁虚而入。

欧盟遭受更多来自内部的攻击

2018年初意大利选举最可能的结果是中立派民主党与中右翼的意大利力量党(Forza Italia)组成联合政府。但是,怀疑欧元区五星运动党(Eurosceptic Five Star Movement)的呼声也很高。该党的民粹派领袖、31岁的路易吉·迪马伊奥(Luigi Di Maio)想抛弃欧盟的很多法规,甚至希望彻底退出欧盟。与此同时,西班牙的法院将判决加泰罗尼亚领导人卡莱斯·普伊格德蒙特(Carles Puigdemont)犯有叛乱罪。

印度经济大增长

全球经济在2018年应该是温和增长,但印度将出现大繁荣。印度经济在2016年增长7.1%,2017年预计为6.7%,明年有望增长7.4%,原因之一是政府的废钞行动初见成效。(中国明年预计增长6.5%。)尽管经济风险依旧存在,需要进行更多的改革,但印度将成为国际货币基金组织所追踪的增长最快的主要经济体。

税改通过,但GDP增长不到3%

特朗普总统和共和党主导的国会有能力为企业税改立法,但仅靠减税无法抵消人口老龄化、中产阶级技能不足等不利因素。美国的GDP在2018年的增长率将为2.5%。

Dems win the popular vote, but still can’t retake congress

Democrats will have the numbers in the 2018 midterm election, but we predict it won’t be enough for them to take the House. Urban clustering (and gerrymandering) favors Republicans so heavily that not even a presidential approval rating below 40% will be enough to put Nancy Pelosi back in the House Speaker’s seat. The Senate, meanwhile, is an even longer bet.

Brexit chaos brings down Theresa May

A snowballing sexual harassment scandal in Parliament and divisions over Brexit will coalesce into a force strong enough to bring down Theresa May’s government. The Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn will become U.K. Prime Minister and will try to complete Brexit negotiations with the EU (hoping to create a socialist paradise outside the “neoliberal” EU’s Single Market). The foreign exchange and bond markets will push back, hard.

Puerto Rico makes an energy comeback

The devastation wrought by Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico leaves the field wide open for entrepreneurial experiments. Although the first bid to rebuild the island’s power grid was a debacle, Gov. Ricardo Rosselló has said the old system could eventually be replaced with localized microgrids powered by solar and wind. A similar idea involves small modular nuclear reactors. By this time next year, Puerto Rico will be jump-starting a global renewable (or nuclear) revolution, with all the investment that entails.

EU antitrust suits keep rolling

The European Union will levy another heavy fine on Google for abuse of its dominance of the Android system. It will also reject the tech giant’s proposed fixes in its other ongoing case over rigging shopping results. Look for Bing to make inroads.

The EU weathers more attacks from within

The most likely outcome of Italy’s early 2018 election is a coalition between the centrist Democratic Party and Forza Italia. But the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement is also polling well. Its populist leader, 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, wants to ditch many EU rules (or pull out entirely). Meanwhile, Catalonian separatist leader Carles Puigdemont will be convicted of rebellion by Spanish courts.

India surges

The world economy should grow modestly in 2018, but India will boom. After 7.1% growth in 2016 and a projected 6.7% uptick in 2017, the Indian economy is expected to balloon 7.4% next year, thanks in part to its demonetization reforms starting to bear fruit. (China, by contrast, is expected to grow 6.5%.) While economic risks linger and more reforms are needed, India will be the fastest-growing major economy the IMF tracks.

Tax Reform Passes …but GDP doesn’t hit 3%

President Trump and the GOP-led Congress are able to enact some corporate tax reforms, but find that tax cuts alone can’t quickly compensate for an aging population and an underskilled middle class. GDP grows by 2.5% for the year.

Nic Rapp

房价涨幅有限

房地产行业网站Zillow请100多位经济学家和房地产专家预测明年房价,普遍的回答是会上涨,但不会有2017年这么高。

2018年美国联邦基金利率:2.25%

美国经济依旧难以实现高增长,但失业率持续走低将对工资和物价产生足够的上行压力,促使杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)领导下的美联储一再调高利率。美联储的基准利率将自2008年金融危机以来第一次上升到2%以上。

到明年圣诞节时的石油价格:60美元

沙特的政治动荡和时常发生的夏季风暴将使原油价格在2018年出现大幅波动,但是美国的页岩油将保证美国国内石油供应充足,因此油价每次冲高之后,都可能出现大幅回调。明年还没必要处理你的大排量SUV。

Home Prices (Barely) Rise

Zillow asked more than 100 economists and real estate experts where they thought home prices would wind up next year. The average answer? Up—but not by as much as in 2017.

2.25%: The federal funds rate at the end of 2018

Yuge economic growth remains elusive, but continued low unemployment puts enough upward pressure on wages and prices to prompt more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, led by new chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed’s benchmark rate rises above 2% for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.

$60: What a barrel of oil will cost next Christmas

Saudi political turmoil and the occasional disruptive summer storm will make the price of crude fluctuate plenty in 2018. But U.S. shale oil will keep the domestic supply flowing, putting an expiration date on any price spikes. No need to pawn the SUV just yet.

Nic Rapp

美国IPO市场再度活跃

2016年美国首次公开募股收入非常不景气,只有162亿美元,2017年上升至397亿美元。全球性的贝克麦坚时律师事务所(Baker McKenzie)认为,2018年美国IPO规模将达到709亿美元。能出现这样大的增长,投资要感谢给力的股市和科技公司。

可能发生的事件

小概率:马克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)将亲自检查Facebook上有关2018年选举的帖子,了解俄罗斯人是否干预选举。

大概率:俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京将在明年3月选举中成功连任。

The U.S. IPO market jumps to life again

Last year was particularly weak for domestic IPO proceeds, at just $16.2 billion. That ticked up to a projected $39.7 billion this year, and—according to global law firm Baker McKenzie—will hit $70.9 billion in 2018. Investors will thank a robust stock market and tech companies for the boost.

The odds

Long shot: Mark Zuckerberg will personally fact-check Facebook posts related to the 2018 election and learn Russian to sniff out any interference.

Slam dunk: Russian President Vladimir Putin wins reelection in March.

2.把你对市场的感觉告诉我们,我们将告诉你哪家投行是你的知音

标普500在11月16日收于2,585点

你认为,股市早该跌了,“折磨人的牛市”是对投资者心态的最为恰当的形容?

你的看法和高盛(Goldman Sachs)吻合,高盛预测标普指数到2018年底将为2,500点。

你认为,2017年全球股市上涨将受到“全球高债务和就业恢复缓慢的持续压制”?

富国银行(Well Fargo)是你的盟友,它预测标普2018年收盘点数不超过2,550。

你认为“经济形势给力,衰退风险不大”?

你应该认可瑞信(Credit Suisse),它预测标普2018年的收盘点数为2,875。

3.飞机、火车和飞行汽车。

明年,能拯救地球的零排放车辆将取得突破,火箭或许有一天可以帮助我们逃离地球。

2. Tell Us How You Feel About the Market, and We’ll Tell You Which Big Bank Is Your Soul Mate

As of Nov. 16, the S&P 500 was at 2,585.

Do you think we’re overdue for a decline and that the phrase “‘tormented bulls’ best describes investor mentality”?

You’re a match for Goldman Sachs, projecting the S&P will end 2018 at 2,500.

Do you think 2017’s global rally will be “restrained by ongoing global headwinds from high debt [and] slow labor recoveries”?

You’re besties with Wells Fargo, projecting a 2018 finale as high as 2,550.

Do you see a “supportive economic backdrop, with benign recessionary risks”?

You should get to know Credit Suisse. It projects the S&P 500 will close out 2018 at 2,875.

3. Planes, Trains, and Cars That Fly

Next year will see breakthroughs in zero-emissions vehicles that could help save the planet—and rockets that may one day help us escape it.

Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune

很多鹿被自驾驶汽车撞死

到目前为止,自驾驶汽车在新加坡、亚利桑那和安阿伯等地井然有序的大街上的行驶记录基本良好。但在明年,随着数百辆更多的自驾驶汽车上路,不可避免地会发生事故。袋鼠、野鹿和单车骑行者是自驾驶汽车的盲点。

地缘政治阴谋阻挠超级高铁

越来越多的公司盯上了超级高铁(Hyperloop)运输系统,它们发现,几处最有潜力的地方——建设空间最广阔和资金最充足的地方——都位于中东政治风险较大的地区。相对于地区复杂的地缘政治形势,工程是个容易解决的问题。

特斯拉起飞

Uber正在洛杉矶搞一个飞行出租车试点项目,由Alphabet首席执行官拉里·佩奇(Larry page)创投的气势船生产商Kitty Hawk正在研发面向消费者的运输工具。我们认为,在2018年,特斯拉(Tesla)首席执行官和未来派汽车大咖埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)将亲自创办一家飞行汽车企业,加入对天空的争夺。

全电动汽车销量在明年超过100万

2017年,全电动汽车销售为58万辆。咨询公司LMC Automotive认为,即便美国政府不主动力推,全电动汽车的销售在2018年仍会大涨70%。

可能发生的事件:

小概率: 在汽车行业的鼓动下,特朗普政府将为零排放汽车研究投入100亿美元。

大概率:明年将是有纪录以来拉尼娜现象最为严重的一年。

4.最高法院如何裁决?

美国最高法院又回到9人满编状态,已经准备裁决现任院长鲁思·巴德·金斯伯格(Ruth Bader Ginsburg)所说的一系列“重要”案。以下是三个预测:

关于工会:法官将在贾努斯案(Mark Janus是伊利诺伊州公立部门的雇员,他没有加入工会但是被要求支付会费用于工会的集体谈判。他为此起诉工会——译注)裁定,政府雇员可以不缴纳强制性会费。这对工会的影响力是一个打击。

关于不公平的选区划分:最高法庭的关键摇摆票安东尼·肯尼迪(Anthony Kennedy)颇为吸人注目。他将在吉尔诉惠特福德案(Gill v. Whtiford)投出关键一票,判定出于政治目的而以复杂的方式重新划分选区不符合宪法。

关于隐私:最高法院不懂科技是出了名的,但也逐渐认识到,无休止地使用手机所带来的隐私风险。在卡彭特(Carpenter)起诉美国政府案中,法院将裁定,警方如想获得嫌疑人的手机定位信息,必须得到授权批准。

5.关注谁,支持谁,吃什么

体育、媒体、食品和文化的变化和我们消费它们的速度一样快。

Autonomous cars start killing a lot of deer

So far, driverless cars have a (mostly) clean record cruising the orderly streets of Singapore, Arizona, and Ann Arbor. But as hundreds more hit the road next year, accidents are inevitable. Blind spots? Kangaroos, deer, and bicyclists.

Geopolitical intrigue stymies the hyperloop

As more companies set their sights on a Hyperloop transit system, they’re finding that several of the most promising spots—with the most space to build and the deepest pockets for budgeting—are in politically fraught sections of the Middle East. Engineering is easy compared with the complexities of regional geopolitics.

Tesla takes off

Uber is building a flying-taxi pilot program in L.A., and the hovercraft-maker Kitty Hawk, backed by Alphabet CEO Larry Page, is working on consumer transports. Our bet: In 2018, Tesla CEO and mobility futurist Elon Musk joins the sky-race with an aeronautic venture of his own.

All-electric car sales near 1 million next year

Even if Washington is resistant to paving the way, global sales of all-electric cars will surge 70% in 2018, up from 580,000 this year, according to LMC Automotive.

The odds

Long shot: The Trump administration, at Detroit’s urging, sinks $10 billion into zero-emissions car research.

Slam dunk: Next year will be the warmest La Nia year on record.

4. How the Supreme Court Will Rule

Back to a full bench of nine, the Supreme Court justices are ready to rule on what Ruth Bader Ginsburg described as a “momentous” series of cases. Here, three predictions:

On unions: The justices will strike another blow to the power of unions by ruling, in a case known as Janus, that government workers may opt out of mandatory dues.

On partisan gerrymandering: The court’s key swing vote, Anthony Kennedy, has a flair for the dramatic. He will cast the deciding vote in a 5–4 ruling in Gill v. Whitford that will declare the serpentine redrawing of election districts for political purposes to be unconstitutional.

On privacy: Famously tech-resistant, the court has gradually come to recognize the privacy hazards of constant cell phone use. In Carpenter v. United States, it will require cops to get a warrant if they wish to determine a suspect’s location using phone records.

5. Who to Watch, Who to Root for, What to Eat

Sports, media, food, and culture are changing almost as fast as the ways we consume them.

Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune

掐线族将达到2,700万

在2018年,越来越多的人将取消有线电视服务,这类人被称为“掐线族”。到2017年底,将有2,220万美国人抛弃他们的有线电视提供商,比2016年增长了33.2%。在明年、后年和大后年,掐线族将连续增长。不过,您可别为有线电视行业的盈利情况难过。随着传统有线电视的订户数量暴跌,康卡斯特(Comcast)、威瑞森(Verizon)等公司的宽带业务将出现大幅增长。

人造奶之后又有人造肉

我们认为,农作物将炙手可热。牛奶的替代品——如杏仁和大豆——的产量在过去5年增长了45%,在美国的市场占有率达7%。可以预计,肉类市场是下一个改造对象,因为食品科技将能生产出味道更像肉的替代品。目前,人造肉在加工肉和海鲜市场的占有率不到1%,但其增长率将远超真肉。

电子竞技产业发展壮大

竞技电游正在成为主流。研究机构Newzoo称,电子竞技已经是一个营业收入达6.6亿美元的产业,在2018年将暴增40%,增长动力来自商家赞助、媒体转播权,还有门票销售。游戏生产商动视暴雪(Blizzard)今秋在美国开办了第一个赛区。

热播新剧:我的聪明朋友(My Briiliant Friend)

HBO和意大利国营广播机构RAI正联合摄制根据埃莱纳·费兰蒂(Elenta Ferrante)的国际系列畅销书《那不勒斯小说》(Neapolitan Novels)的第一部作品改编的电视剧,将于2018年播出,具体日期尚未公布。

热门球队

职棒总决赛

超级碗: 爱国者队(Patriots)和维京海盗队(Vikings)将在52届超级碗决赛对垒。今年,棒约翰公司(Papa John’s)称,全美橄榄球联盟球员的抗议影响了公司业绩。明年,决赛的电视观众将降到1.05亿以下,降幅为5%。

职棒总决赛:洛杉矶道奇队(Dodgers)将对垒克利夫兰印第安人队(Indians)。道奇队的投资人和老板们要祈祷,他们为球员提供的棒球史上最高工资(2.4亿美元)能最终带来一座总冠军奖杯。

NBA总决赛: 克利夫兰骑士队将面对一个意想不到的对手:休斯敦火箭队(Rockets)。火箭队老板是牛排餐厅和赌场大亨蒂尔曼·费尔蒂塔(Tilman Fertita)

6.科技行业在2018年的风险和希望

2018年,硅谷和其他地方将出现不可思议的创新、无畏的黑客和高管的内斗。

The number of cord-cutters will hit 27 million

The ranks of cord-cutters will keep ballooning in 2018. By the end of this year about 22.2 million Americans will have ditched their cable TV providers, a 33.2% increase from 2016. Those losses will rise next year—and the next, and the next. But don’t shed a tear for the cable industry’s bottom line. As traditional TV subscriptions plummet, companies like Comcast and Verizon are seeing big growth in broadband.

Meatless meat is the next dairy-free milk

We’ll say it: Plants are hot. Milk alternatives—think almond and soy—have grown 45% by volume over the past five years to constitute 7% of the U.S. market. Expect meat aisles to transform next, as food and tech collide to produce alternatives that taste more, well, meaty. Right now, substitutes make up less than 1% of the processed-meat and seafood market—but their rate of growth should outpace the real stuff’s.

E-Sports get huge

Competitive gaming is going mainstream. Research firm Newzoo says e-sports, a $660 million industry, will soar 40% next year thanks to sponsorships, media rights, and, yes, ticket sales. Gamemaker Blizzard opened its first U.S. arena this fall.

The hot new show: My Brilliant Friend

HBO and Italian state broadcaster RAI are teaming up to produce the first installment of Elena Ferrante’s Neapolitan Novels, the international bestselling series, for an as-yet-undisclosed release date in 2018.

The favorites

Super Bowl: The Patriots meet the Vikings in Super Bowl LII. Despite complaints from Papa John’s, the TV audience falls below 105 million, down 5%.

World Series: The Dodgers square off against the Cleveland Indians, as L.A.’s investor-owners pray that their payroll—the highest in baseball, at $240 million—finally yields a trophy.

NBA: The Cleveland Cavaliers face a surprise contender, the Houston Rockets, owned by steak-house and casino magnate Tilman Fertitta.

6. Tech’s Peril and Promise in 2018

Next year, incredible innovations, intrepid hackers, and executive infighting will leave their mark on Silicon Valley and beyond.

Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune

Facebook终于承认自己是一家媒体公司

如果某个东西看上去像鸭子,游起来象鸭子,叫声也象鸭子,那它可能是家科技公司,不对吗?Facebook坚称自己不是媒体公司,尽管证据正好相反:假新闻的冲击、员工在做编辑的工作,每年270亿美元的广告收入。期待它在2018年不要再拒绝被称作“媒体公司”,尽管这样做会让它面临更多的管制。

苹果打破纪录

今年11月,苹果(Apple)的iPhone X在数小时内卖断货(后来有人在eBay上以高达8,000美元一台的价格转售)。2018年,iPhone X有望帮助苹果突破它在2015年的手机销量纪录。

医疗应用数量太多,让人吃不消

目前,几乎有所疗法都有了应用。机器人疗法、糖尿病辅助治疗、罕见病支持群组……无所不包。Mercom公司称,全球移动医疗企业的融资去年达到了13亿美元。这一领域在2018年将继续增长,预计到2022年,全球市场规模将超过1,000亿美元,尤其是在美国食品与药品管理局为移动医疗应用上市开大开方便之门的时候。

特拉维斯·卡兰尼克再度出山

美国人喜欢东山再起的故事,特兰维斯·卡兰尼克(Travis Kalanick)是美国企业家身上善与恶的缩影。他将在明年卷土重来。目前,他仍是Uber的董事,Uber的上市工作离不开他,他是大师级的融资人和Uber故事的讲述者。

比特币崩盘!比特币创新高!

对于数字加密货币比特币来说,2017年是标志性的一年,但记住我们的话:崩盘即将到来。比特币会暴跌至5,000美元左右。但是,在大跌之后,比特币价格将在2018年底突破20,000美元。我们会打这个赌,但不会在它上面押上一切。我们相信机构投资者会这么做,包括互助基金和银行,它们越来越重视比特币。

在线约会转向视频

随着更多的媒体公司进入视频业务,交友应用也在做同样的事。Hinge开始允许用户上传30秒电影,Bumble推出了视频聊天功能,就连古老的交友网站Match.com也增加了一个新的“故事”选项,可以编辑长达一分钟的真人视频。千禧一代已经在Instagram和Snapchat上面和陌生人分享他们的生活,他们将把视频做为常用的功能。

亚马逊继续吞噬世界

携收购全食超市(Whole Foods Market)之势,亚马逊(Amazon)还将继续加强它的实体存在,以加快送货。这可能意味着收购科尔士百货(Kohl’s)、欧迪办公(Office Depot)这样的大型零售连锁公司。

各城市将请求这三家公司入驻

当亚马逊披露,正在寻找另一个总部时,公司收到了很多媒体的正面报道和免税的承诺。更多的公司将在2018年效仿亚马逊。Facebook、英伟达(Nvidia)、阿里巴巴,你们有什么打算?

沃尔玛收购更多的时尚公司

为了对抗亚马逊,沃尔玛(Walmart)对网站进行了重新改造。它还将继续收购热门电商品牌。可能的交易包括眼镜生产商Warby Prker、服装品牌Everlane、Untuckit等知名品牌。这些竞购将帮助沃尔玛争取它觊觎已久的高收入客户。

7.明年需要了解的词汇

“松树岛”(Pine Island)和“恩怀兹”(Thwaites):两座移动速度相对较快的南极洲冰山,体量巨大,一旦融化,将使海平面逐步上涨达4英寸,会淹没很多沿海城市。两座冰山上的冰块正在加速脱落。

“卡芬太尼”(Carfentanil):一种用于麻醉大象的人工合成阿片类药,一般在亚洲的工厂生产,现在已经成为美国阿片类药物危机中的一种特别可怕和致命的因素。

“RNA”(核糖核酸):各药企正在测试新的技术,通过改变RNA抑止基因表达,抗击致命性遗传疾病。新疗法最快于2018年产生。

8. 谁会有个好年景

商业和所有领域一样,都有成功者和失败者。看看谁会在2018年得意或失意。

蒸蒸日上

Lyft:这家共乘服务新创企业将继续从Uber的丑闻和全力开拓商务旅行中受益,市占率将由2017年的21%增长至2018年30%以上。

中国的亿万富豪:中国的亿万富豪已经超过了美国。和中国的经济一样,他们的财富有望继续快速增长。

律师:针对阿片类药物制造商的官司潮肯定会让某些律师得利,特别是当药企支付数十亿美元和解金的时候。

宠物食用大麻:这是狗用的百忧解(Prozac,抗抑郁药物)。今年1月,合法的娱乐性大麻将在加利福尼亚出售,宠物食用大麻将是火爆的市场之一。

500美元瑜伽裤:大卖场确实正在垂死挣扎,但最高端的卖场(也就是有很多设计师品牌的A级卖场)仍然有着很好的增长前景。

花香四溢:忘了南瓜拿铁吧。全食公司说,2018年,消费者会疯狂爱上玫瑰和薰衣草的香气。

腰包:一般认为,戴腰包是为了实用或省事。但现在,腰包已经装点了卡戴珊家族几位女士的玉照。到2018年,它会更多出现在T型台上。

江河日下

Uber: 尽管公司在努力稳定形势,包括争取到了软银(SoftBank)的巨额注资,但Uber的市场仍然不断被小的竞争对手蚕食。

沃伦·巴菲特的财富净值:彭博社(Bloomberg)称,奥马哈先知的财富净值在今年秋天创下了815亿美元的新高。但由于热爱捐赠,巴菲特的财富明年难以进一步增长。

阿片类药特分销商和生产商:美国各地对这些企业的官司不断,更不要说越来越大的公众压力,它们将被迫重新考虑自己的作法。

销售大麻的小店:这个行业将快速合并,许多大麻业的励志大亨从此崭露头角。

100美元瑜伽裤:经常锻炼的人们意识到,穿着昂贵的衣服锻炼没有意义,露露柠檬(Lululemon)等休闲运动知名品牌的市场占有率将下滑。

送餐新创企业:靠风投支持的送餐新创企业的末日快要来临。问问Blue Apron的投资者就知道了。

播客:播客场已经达到饱和,调整即将降临。

9.我们在2017年的表现如何

完全准确:我们准确预测到,特朗普总统将收回清洁能源法,废除允许未登记的“美国梦追求者”在美国合法工作的规定。我们预测到,经济的稳定增长将使美联储在12个月内三次提高利率。至于娱乐业,我们预测到一个流媒体服务将赢得奥斯卡奖(亚马逊的《海连和曼彻斯特》拿下两项大奖)和超级碗收视率的下降。

大致不差:我们预测新款iPhone将出现大幅升级,包括采用OLED屏幕,销量也同步反弹。我们还警告,虚拟现实技术将很难赢得消费者的青睐。(如果你正戴着Oculus的头盔在看这篇文章。我们会表示歉意。)

完全错误:我们曾预测,特朗普政策的不确定性和估值高企将终结股票的长期牛市。我们的关于不确定性和估值的观点是对的,但预测错了投资者的情绪:标普自那以后上涨了18%。此外,如果你想让一个法国人笑出声来,只要对他说这几个字:“阿兰·朱佩总统”。(财富中文网)

以下编辑对本文有贡献:Ryan Bradley, Clay Dillow, Erika Fry, Leigh Gallagher, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Tom Huddleston Jr., Beth Kowitt, Adam Lashinsky, Michal Lev-Ram, Sy Mukherjee, Andrew Nusca, Brian O’Keefe, Aaron Pressman, Jeff John Roberts, Geoffrey Smith, Anne VanderMey, Phil Wahba, Valentina Zarya, Claire Zillman

本文的另一版本将登载于2017年12月1日出版的《财富》杂志。

译者:天逸

Facebook finally admits it’s a media company

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it’s probably a tech company. Right? Facebook insists it’s not a media business, despite evidence proving otherwise: fake news frustrations, editors as employees, $27 billion in annual advertising revenue. Next year, look for it to drop its resistance to the moniker, even though that could open it up to more regulation.

Apple breaks records

In November, supplies of the Apple’s $999 iPhone X sold out in hours (only to turn up on eBay for up to $8,000). In 2018, expect the X to help Apple finally beat its 2015 phone sales record.

The sheer number of health apps will cause you trauma

There’s a health app for just about everything these days. Robo-therapy? Diabetes assistance? Rare disease support groups? Check, check, check. Global mobile health venture funding reached a record $1.3 billion last year, according to Mercom. The field will continue to boom in 2018 (the total global market could exceed $100 billion by 2022), especially as the FDA moves to make it easier for mobile health apps to reach the market.

Travis Kalanick resurfaces

Americans love second acts. Kalanick, the epitome for good and ill of the American entrepreneur, will get his this year. He’s still on the Uber board of directors, and IPO preparations will include Kalanick, a master fundraiser and spinner of the Uber narrative.

Bitcoin crashes! Bitcoin hits all-time highs!

It’s been a banner year for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, but mark our words: A crash is coming. Expect the price of one Bitcoin to tumble from its current heights above $6,500, to around $5,000. And then, after the fall, watch the price rebound to above $20,000 by the end of 2018. That’s our bet, but we wouldn’t put all our tokens on it. We’ll leave that to the institutional investors, like mutual funds and banks, who are taking cryptocurrency increasingly seriously.

Online dating pivots to video

As more media companies make the leap into video, dating apps are doing the same. In 2017, Hinge began allowing users to upload 30-second films, Bumble launched a video-chat feature, and even good old Match.com is adding a new “Story” option, with minute-long, live-action compilations. Millennials, already primed by Instagram and Snapchat to share their lives with strangers, will embrace the features as their new normal.

Amazon Keeps Eating the World

Hot on the heels of its acquisition of Whole Foods Market, Amazon will keep bolstering its physical presence to speed up delivery. That could mean buying more retail chains with big footprints like Kohl’s or Office Depot.

These Three Companies Will Make Your City Beg to Host Them

Amazon got plenty of positive press (and offers of tax breaks) when it said it was looking for another HQ. More companies will follow its lead in 2018. Looking at you, Facebook, Nvidia, and Alibaba.

Walmart snaps up more trendy companies

As Walmart revamps its website to counter Amazon, its acquisitions of small but hot online brands will continue. Expect to see deals for stalwarts like eyeglass maker Warby Parker and clothiers Everlane and Untuckit. The bids will help Walmart reach the higher-income customer it so covets.

7. Terms to Know

“Pine Island” & “Thwaites”: The two (relatively) fast-moving Antarctic glaciers are big enough that if melted, sea levels would rise roughly four feet over time, inundating many coastal cities. Both are shedding ice at accelerating rates.

“Carfentanil”: An elephant tranquilizer and synthetic opioid, often manufactured in labs in Asia, that has become an especially scary and deadly force in America’s opioid crisis.

“RNA”: Companies are testing new tech to silence gene expression and combat deadly genetic diseases by manipulating RNA, DNA’s biological partner, with new treatments due out as soon as 2018.

8. Who’s Going to Have a Good Year

In business as in all things, there are winners and losers. Here’s what will be hot (or not) in 2018.

Trending up

Lyft. The ride-sharing startup will continue to benefit from Uber’s scandals (and a focus on business travel), with market share speeding from 21% in early 2017 to more than 30% in 2018.

Chinese billionaires. There are already more billionaires in China than there are in the U.S. by some counts. And, like the Chinese economy, those fortunes look set to continue their outsize growth.

Lawyers. Someone has to benefit from the tide of lawsuits coming at opioid manufacturers—particularly if drugmakers pay out a multibillion-dollar settlement.

Edibles for pets. Pet edibles are the next doggy Prozac. It’s just one market that will get smoking hot when legal recreational weed goes on sale in California in January.

$500 yoga pants. Sure, malls are flailing, but the priciest among them (a.k.a. “Class A” malls, featuring racks of designer labels) still have strong growth prospects.

Flower flavoring. Forget the pumpkin spice latte, Whole Foods says people will go nuts for flower flavors like rose and lavender in 2018.

The Fanny Pack. Call it normcore, or call it practical. But the fanny pack, already gracing the frames of several Kardashians, will hit more runways in 2018.

Trending Down

Uber. Despite stabilization efforts at the company (including a huge cash infusion from SoftBank), Uber will keep losing ground to its smaller rivals.

Warren Buffett’s net worth. Sure, the Oracle of Omaha’s net worth hit a hew high of $81.5 billion this fall, according to Bloomberg, but further growth next year will be thwarted by his tendency to give it away.

Opioid distributors and manufacturers. They’ll be forced to rethink their practices under mounting litigation filed by cities, counties, and states, not to mention growing public pressure.

Mom-and-pop weed companies. Quickening industry consolidation will nip many aspiring cannabiz moguls in the bud.

$100 yoga pants. Lululemon and other stalwarts of the “athleisure” craze will lose market share as people who actually exercise realize there’s no point in working out in expensive clothes.

Food delivery startups. The day of reckoning is finally nigh for heavily VC-subsidized food delivery startups. (Just ask Blue Apron investors.)

Podcasts. The airwaves have reached the saturation point for three guys and a Patreon account. A shakeout is coming.

9. How We Did in 2017

On target: We predicted correctly that President Trump would put his stamp on the business world by rolling back clean power regulations and rescinding rules that let undocumented “dreamers” work legally in the U.S. We foresaw that steady economic growth would prompt the Fed to hike interest rates three times in 12 months. And in entertainment, we predicted an Oscar for a streaming service (Amazon’s Manchester by the Sea won two) and a decline in Super Bowl TV ratings.

In the ballpark: We predicted major upgrades for the new iPhone, including its OLED screen, in tandem with a big sales rebound. We also warned that VR technology would struggle to gain traction with consumers. (Our apologies if you’re reading this through an Oculus headset.)

Off the mark: We predicted that Trumpian policy uncertainty and sky-high share valuations would end the long bull market in stocks. We were right about the uncertainty and valuations, but wrong about investors’ moods: The S&P 500 is up 18% since then. Meanwhile, if you’d like to make a French person laugh, just utter these three words: “President Alain Juppé.”

Crystal Ball Contributors: Ryan Bradley, Clay Dillow, Erika Fry, Leigh Gallagher, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Tom Huddleston Jr., Beth Kowitt, Adam Lashinsky, Michal Lev-Ram, Sy Mukherjee, Andrew Nusca, Brian O’Keefe, Aaron Pressman, Jeff John Roberts, Geoffrey Smith, Anne VanderMey, Phil Wahba, Valentina Zarya, Claire Zillman

A version of this article appears in the Dec. 1, 2017 issue of Fortune.

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